Our Founder's Top 5 Mobility Predictions by 2030

11 October 2021

Read time: 4 min

The future of AutoTech by Shiva, CEO of Pitstop

Being the CEO of Pitstop, a leading predictive analytics AutoTech company, has opened my eyes to many new and innovative trends in the industry.

I decided to write down my top five predictions on the future of AutoTech & mobility by the year 2030.


1.
 There will be an even mix of vehicle types on the road (BEV, ICE, Hybrid)

How Much Does it Cost to Charge an Electric Car? | Kelley Blue Book

Today:

ICE vehicles were the sole propulsion type that dominated over the past 100 years. The infrastructure for roads, fueling stations, and manufacturing has made it very difficult to deviate from the core ICE technology.

Prediction:

Tesla has paved the way to show that there is room for a new OEM that can be successful with a new propulsion type. Climate change and the backing of major governments across the world will help overcome the infrastructure challenges which private industries previously could not bear to create on their own. Alternative solutions from pure ICE or BEV such as Hybrid is a really strong solution while we transition to cost-effective & low emissions battery production. The future will have a distributed mix of ICE, Hybrid, BEV.

2. The dominant OEMs and Tier1 suppliers will be names we haven’t heard yet


Today:

The dominant players of the industry in 2021 are companies that were started at least 50 years ago and they all make physical components at scale. Software and AI are not in their DNA which is a completely different mindset. In 2020 GM sold 5M vehicles whereas Tesla sold 500K vehicles, but their valuations are $72B and $783B respectively. It clearly shows what mindset is more important to the future of transportation and how it is valued by the world.

Prediction:

The market will shift to include a new set of OEMs & Tier1 suppliers whose value will be predominantly defined by providing software & AI not physical components. Even traditional incumbents will refer to their products as smart and software/algorithm enabled. I believe the traditional incumbents that dominate 2021 will need to reinvent themselves through M&A & strategic investments in order to stay relevant by 2030.


3.
 Fleets will be very important to the overall ecosystem. It will be where future technologies are defined and proven

Today:

Sports cars have been the platform to test out new technologies, which then proliferate to all vehicles in the years that follow. For example, power windows were introduced as an option on luxury vehicles, and over time were brought down to all models. Also, the Tesla Model S was used as a platform to prove battery electric vehicles.

Prediction:

The fleet segment will grow to include new categories (ex. pay per mile, autonomous, ride-hailing leases) as well as grow significantly in size with current categories (last-mile delivery, medium, and long haul). The fleet segment will shape the sophistication around future technologies that will come to all vehicles. For example, a lot of initial autonomous vehicle use cases on the road will be on fleet trucks because of the clear ROI it brings to the fleet segment.


4.
 The connected vehicle will proliferate AI applications much like the internet did to software applications.

Today:

Connected vehicles today are a pathetic representation of what’s possible. You can unlock and lock your vehicle from a smartphone app, but it largely stops at that. The middleware and infrastructure is being worked on but not fully matured. This will change rapidly with the NEW Autotech companies, OEMs, and Tier1 suppliers that hit the market.

Prediction:

The connected vehicle will mimic the proliferation of the internet on top of desktop/laptop computers in the 2000s. There will be complex networks of integrated solutions that will enable a world of secure AI-driven applications that optimize vehicles for traffic, efficiency, power consumption/energy harvesting, user experience improvements amongst others. This is really when the vehicle will be a smartphone on wheels. The push to 5G will help make this conversion happen as it delivers better economics of data transfer.


5. The lifestyle of North Americans will no longer be centered around the purchase of a car and daily commute.

Today:

Unless you’re in a core metropolitan city the only way to travel in North America is by car that you purchased. Amazon deliveries, Uber, and Lyft have shifted this paradigm as it presents a new option for transportation and gaining access to mobility. However, most of our commute or leisure travel depends on vehicle ownership today.

Prediction:

The connected vehicle will enable a new world of AI that has not yet been experienced. The intelligence across various devices will make a person’s life seamless, integrated with the home, vehicle, and personal devices. For example, you will have the option to buy a car and commute or subscribe to autonomous vehicle networks that take you to work (in North America).


Summary of my thoughts

As of 2021, we are sitting on the edge of the next decade, which will contribute to the largest change in Automotive & Mobility in comparison to the last 100 years. Companies established during this decade will define the next 100 years!

Already since 2019, there has been 13x more investment dollars put into new Autotech companies in comparison to traditional OEMs! It’s an impactful time to be in the Autotech industry across all segments of the ACES (Autonomous, Connected, Electric, Shared) technology stack.

It would be great to hear your thoughts on my predictions, please leave your comments and connect with me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shivabhardwaj/

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